Briefing Room 18.04.26: Armenia Tries to Escape Russia's Grasp, South Sudan in Chaos, and More

Welcome to The Briefing Room, the weekly show that acts as your regular reminder that there is stuff happening in places other than the Middle East or Washington DC.

This week we're traveling first to the Caucasus where Armenia is poised at what could be a turning point in the nation's history, balanced between a Russian-led system that has failed it and a Western-led one trying to prize it from Moscow's grasp.

After that we're checking in Nigeria where a fight between the government and terrorist factions is turning deadlier than ever.

And then it's a final trip down to South Sudan to examine how the political machinations of an alien president are throwing an entire nation into chaos. As always, thank you for subscribing, thanks to you guys we're able to produce shows like this one and occasionally cover unfashionable topics on the main channel like Sudan or Myanmar.

And now let's head straight to our first destination, this week, Armenia.

For our first story we turn our attention to Armenia where the EU is expected to deploy a mission comprised of 20 to 30 personnel to combat what the bloc sees as Russia's destabilizing activities.

According to Radio Free Europe, the planned deployment, which is called the European Union Partnership Mission, will last for two years and is intended to help Yerevan handle hybrid threats by advising security agencies on strategy and operations.

This is important because over the past year, Armenian officials have regularly accused Russia of waging a hybrid war against Yerevan aimed at undermining democratic institutions and public trust.

These include foreign disinformation campaigns, cyber threats, and the illicit financing of electoral processes. The EU believes that the hybrid threats will escalate before the upcoming elections on the 7th of June.

Moscow has obviously denied all the accusations, not that we were expecting a Kremlin spokesperson to go on state TV and say, yes, my dudes, you know all the things you accused us of?

Yeah, we did all that sh**. No. So why is Russia waging a hybrid war against Armenia? Especially given that right up until February 2024, Armenia was an enthusiastic participant to Russia's answer to NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization or CSTO.

To answer that, we need to discuss Russia's influence in Armenia and the steps that Yerevan has been taking to wean itself off said influence.

Mikhail Zoyan, a former member of the Armenian parliament, wrote in Carnegie Politico, an outlet focused on analysis of Russia and the wider region, that Moscow's influence in Armenia has historically been shaped by two things. Armenia's conflict with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and the goodwill felt by many in Armenian society toward Russia.

Russia is also Yerevan's principal trading and investment partner, accounting for over 35% of external trade in 2025, according to Armenia's deputy minister of economy. The relationship began deteriorating after Russia failed to intervene on Armenia's side in the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, instead portraying itself as a neutral actor.

Even worse was the 2023 invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh, in which Russian peacekeepers stepped aside as Azeri forces overran the ethnically Armenian territory.

Yerevan appealed to the CSTO for help with the CSTO. CSTO's entire reaction basically boiled down to, that's crazy, bro. Good luck.

And that, to put it mildly, really pissed off Yerevan. Armenia suspended its CSTO membership in February 2024 and stopped paying dues to the organization.

In the same year, Armenia participated in NATO military exercises in Moldova, and in April 2025, Armenian President Van Khachokoran signed legislation beginning a process that would see the country join the EU despite being part of the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union.

Additionally, Nikol Pashnyan, Armenia's Prime Minister, confirmed the purchase of American-made VBAT unmanned aerial vehicles during Vice President J.D. Vance's visit in February to Yerevan, marking a concrete step in expanding a military cooperation with Washington.

But despite all the steps that Armenia has taken to get out from under the Kremlin's thumb, Russia still has several levers that it can use to influence Yerevan, most importantly, energy.

At a meeting with Prime Minister Pashnyan, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Armenia receives Russian gas at extremely favorable prices compared to the rest of Europe. According to Putin, Russia sells gas to Armenia at $177.50 per 1,000 cubic meters, while the rest of Europe was buying gas at above $600 per 1,000 cubic meters.

That price difference is important, especially in an election year when voters are a lot more sensitive to price increases.

Beyond gas, Russian state corporations like Gazprom and Russian Railways continue to operate in Armenia. Russian Railways manages Armenia's entire railway network under a 30-year concession agreement signed in 2008.

Pashnyan has asked Russia to restore railway sections that would connect Armenia with Turkey and Azerbaijan, including routes to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan.

These rail links are critical for Armenia's economic growth and its planned participation in the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a U.S.-backed transit corridor that would establish unimpeded multimodal transit connectivity on Armenian territory.

So even while Pashnyan is publicly distancing Armenia from Moscow, he still needs Russian cooperation to rebuild infrastructure that would integrate Armenia into Western-backed regional projects. That is an awkward position to be in, to say the least.

During the recent meeting between Putin and Pashnyan, the former tried to leverage his influence complaining about the treatment of pro-Russia Armenian politicians. He explicitly asked that pro-Russia political forces be allowed to participate in the electoral process, noting that some are in prison despite holding Russian passports.

Given that one of Russia's stated reasons for attacking Ukraine was the supposed treatment of ethnic Russians, this was less a veiled threat and more a straight-up warning.

Despite those complaints, Armenian anti-corruption officials recently detained 14 people connected to Strong Armenia, a pro-Russian opposition party, on suspicion of electoral bribery less than two months before the elections.

Strong Armenia is led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Sander Karapetyan, who is currently on trial, accused of making- making public calls to overthrow the government. These arrests complicate Russia's ability to influence the outcome.

Although as we've seen recently in Moldova and Hungary, that ability is already looking increasingly shaky. And all of this raises an interesting question. Will these arrests, combined with EU support, be enough to prevent a pro-Russia party from winning in June?

Pashinyan's civil contract party looks set to win despite only 26% of the country saying they support the party in a recent opinion poll. Although it's worth pointing out that Russia is also unpopular, with 66% of Armenians in 2024 reported as viewing Moscow negatively.

In short, the election at this time seems up for grabs, and the Kremlin will be desperate to break its recent losing streak.

We'll report back to you as and when the story develops more. For our next story, though, we turn our attention to Nigeria, where efforts by the American and Nigerian governments to fight terrorists have come under increased scrutiny, especially due to the civilian cost of their operations.

Over the weekend, the Nigerian military conducted what it described as a successful targeted strike on a known terrorist enclave and logistics hub located near the abandoned village of Jili, in Borno State.

The military further claimed that the attack, which targeted the Islamic State West Africa Province, or ISWAP, resulted in the death of several terrorists and the destruction of vehicles and other equipment that the terrorists were using. However, reports from several international media houses paint a vastly different picture from what Abuja is saying.

According to the Washington Post, more than 100 people were killed in an airstrike targeting a busy market, most of whom were regular traders and other members of the community.

Malagaba, a trader at the market, denied the government's claim that there had been jihadist fighters at the market. He told the AFP, quoting him here, I don't know if there were jihadists at the market.

We are just ordinary people." Other traders, including Almi Gabchir, who lost two sons in the airstrike, reiterated this message, telling the Post that he wanted the government to understand that they were innocent.

The government later acknowledged that civilians had been harmed in the strike, with the Air Force saying that it had activated its civilian harm accident and investigation cell to immediately proceed to the location on a fact-finding mission on the allegation.

While this is a commendable step, and we hope that the fact-finding mission produces more tangible results than just a report that no one will read, the fact that this strike caused so much civilian death raises serious questions about the intelligence that led to the operation and whether adequate precautions were taken to verify the target before the bomb

Started falling.

In the Post announcing the strike, the Nigerian military went to great lengths to explain the intelligence they had gathered before the strike.

They highlighted the fact that reports consistently indicated the presence of a terrorist logistics network in the area supporting attacks, including an IED attack that killed eight soldiers. Additionally, the Army claimed that they had monitored the suspicious movements of motorcycles and other vehicles all converging in one area.

Finally, the military claimed it used reliable human intelligence and aerial surveillance to confirm the location of the site before launching the airstrikes. yet even with all these steps the strikes still turned out to be a disaster now we're not saying that the strike was completely bearish as malik samuel a researcher at the non-profit organization good

Governance africa told the guardian it was likely that there had been members of is what present at the market is the area is widely known to be a logistics hub for the group however given that the market is frequented by hundreds or even thousands of people it would have been impossible for the government to distinguish between ordinary civilians and is

What fighters in such a case samuel suggested that it would have been better for the military to trace the people leaving the market and going to areas that are known to be occupied by a swap that might have led to fewer civilian casualties than we are seeing now according to the associated press since 2017 the nigerian military has killed at least 500

Civilians in airstrikes meant to kill terrorists that is a staggering number especially because of the lengths that the military claims it takes to avoid civilian casualties however samuel argues that there's a lack of accountability within the military which means that any claims that they are working to avoid civilian casualties are at best lip service and

At worst lies designed to shield the military from consequences high civilian casualties and counterterrorism operations often drive recruitment to the very groups that the government is trying to eliminate communities that might have resisted militant recruitment and provided information to the government instead provide shelter intelligence and new

Fighters for the terror groups because they view them as a way to get revenge on a government that doesn't seem to care about their well-being beyond this specific strike and its civilian casualties there's the broader question of whether nigeria's counterinsurgency program is working despite years of military operations massive defense spending and support

From american intelligence and training programs terrorist groups still have a foothold in the country on the 10th of april the kebi state police command confirmed that 44 were killed in a coordinated attack on eight communities in shangha local government area while the police launched a clearance operation to root out the insurgents the fact that such an

Attack can happen illustrates just how powerful the jihadist groups still are worse their reach may be growing according to a report by the associated press groups are now planning an attack on targets in abuja and niger states in abuja they plan to target the international airport and prison facility and in niger state not to be confused with the

Identically named country next door they'll target a military detention center the ap further reported that the plan mirrors a similar attack in the actual country of nigeria in january in which islamist terrorists attacked an air force base in naima and yes we agree there are far too many places called nigeria in this one story if such an attack were to

Happen in nigeria it would be the biggest security failure in a country that has come to be defined by a litany of security failures perhaps more importantly it would force the nigerian military to take more aggressive action that could put even more civilians at risk we hope it doesn't get to that point it should go without saying that defeating terrorists

And protecting civilians civilians should not be mutually exclusive and yet recently experience seems to show otherwise.

For our final story, we turn our attention to South Sudan, where President Salva Kiir is tightening his vice-like grip on power ahead of the country's elections that are scheduled to be held in December.

On Tuesday 7 April, Kiir abruptly dismissed Speaker Gemma Nunukumba and Deputy Speaker Pamina Awariel Aulong from their positions in the Transitional National Legislative Assembly.

The move followed a petition by members of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, or SPLM, the party that Kiir heads and that has led South Sudan since independence, that accused Gemma of corruption.

While that may sound innocuous enough, the move comes amid a rolling wave of purges by the elderly and increasingly infirm Kiir, who seems intent on stopping any rival gaining too much power. By toppling someone so important within the South Sudanese system, Kiir seems to be stamping his authority and showing that even his most loyal followers are not safe.

After all, it was not so long ago that the president's protégé, Benjamin Belmol, was defenestrated.

A close confidant and business partner of Kiir, Bolmel seemed to be being groomed to take over once Kiir died. According to the International Crisis Group, the president had done everything in his power to clear a path for his protégé, including removing the man with a greater claim on succeeding him, Riek Machar.

The leader of the SPLMIO party, Machar had fought Kiir in a civil war that killed around 400,000 people.

Lasting from 2013 to 2018, it was only ended by a peace deal that, among other things, made Machar the first among the nation's multiple vice presidents, in effect setting him up to become president after Kiir. Kiir detonated this arrangement in autumn of 2025 by arresting Machar and placing him on trial for treason.

Although it caused an ongoing military crisis in the country as Machar's armed faction mobilized against the army, it did at least clear the path for Bolmel.

But then Kiir purged Bolmel just two months later, and since then, the succession question has been as unclear and as potentially dangerous as something from medieval Europe. Nor is it just successes getting purged. Kiir has cycled through nine finance ministers since 2020.

While that amount of turnover would usually indicate an unstable government that can't retain high-level talent, in South Sudan it speaks to the importance of the office. The finance minister is one of the most powerful positions in the country because the minister controls government spending in Norwich country.

President Salva Kiir uses the revenue from oil to buy the loyalty of South Sudan's elite, and without it, the entire system would collapse.

By constantly replacing the minister, Kiir ensures that other than him, no single official has unfettered access to the country's purse strings and the levers of power. All of which would be bad enough for governance, even if Kiir was a sprightly 33-year-old who spent his spare time pumping iron and downing supplements.

But for a 74-year-old in such ill health that he was caught on camera wetting himself at a public event, all this chaos augurs a complete breakdown of the city. system when he finally kicks the bucket.

In fact, the violence currently consuming the countryside is a direct consequence of these succession battles in the capital of Juba, as opposition figures loyal to Riyad Machar try to overthrow the government. Throughout all of this, South Sudan's civilian population is bearing the worst of the cost.

According to Human Rights Watch, South Sudan's military and opposition forces are blocking humanitarian access and unjustifiably ordering civilians to evacuate populated areas.

In the country's northeastern Zhonglai state, at least 280,000 people have been displaced, many fleeing government bombardments, fearing government and opposition forces abuses, or following evacuation orders. And it doesn't look like things are going to get better anytime soon, as both the opposition and the government forces jockey for position.

At the start of this piece, we mentioned that South Sudan has elections scheduled to be held in December 2026.

What we didn't mention is that if they are held, then these will be the first elections in the country's history. That's because the people with the guns have postponed multiple elections, claiming that the country was not ready to hold them. Given the violence that we're currently witnessing, it seems increasingly unlikely that elections will be held.

Instead, the people of South Sudan will continue to live under an ailing president who is actively undermining the nation's security and governance just to ensure that no one removes his aging arse from power. And that is no way to live. Thank you for watching.